Disclaimer: The information from this article and analysis is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be an investment or financial advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
I have delayed this new report for ten days, to match my monthly cycle with calendar cycles. The reason I did this, is because we launched last month a new analytic view, and following calendar month, will allow us to analyze it quickly.
Now thanks to this analytic view, we can see our profits quickly so far:
As you may remember, I made 6.04% profit in my first cycle and -4.9% in my second cycle. I increased my balance during the second cycle, so the losses were more significant than my earnings during the first cycle.
How my balance evolution performed:
As you can see, my balance at the start of this cycle was ฿0.91693910, and I ended the month with ฿0.96799528, but if you look at the TUSD column, you will notice that I have reserved Ⓢ58.00, this is because I converted ฿0.014220147 to TUSD as profit from this cycle. So in this cycle, I made a total of ฿0.982215427, meaning 7.12% profit from the beginning of the period and 2.81% profit from my total investment amount.
So far I have collected Ⓢ99.86 from my total investment, and I have almost the same amount to keep playing.
I got some insight from my second cycle month that I wanted to apply to this one. I removed the DCAs; I started using the Time Based Autoclose option with 15h, and I reduced the stop-loss considerably. Everything based on the insight that I got from the averages from the last month. I was trying to close trades as soon as possible, and re-use the balance all the time. The results were terrible, awful, my total balance was down up to ฿0.891.
From March 7th to March 11th I stopped almost everything (you can notice in the balance screenshot because the BNB balance almost didn't change).
I decided to start over and reviewed the list of providers, looking for one that could fulfill what I was looking for: unattended passive income; also I didn't want to use DCAs, so I skipped all providers that recommended DCA settings in their descriptions. There is nothing wrong with the DCA, if you check our Discord group, there is a channel for showing results, and you will find many users doing terrific with DCAs. I also was looking for providers aimed for at least 2% profit per trade. I discarded all providers based on scalping strategies. Again, there is nothing wrong with them, many users are doing terrific with scalping, but for now, I'm looking for other things.
I found a provider that suited my requirements, Koala Bounce but I had an issue, I use the Minimum Volume setting, and there weren't many signals that meet my criteria, so in order to have as much as balance invested as possible, I increased the position size and added a second provider Koala Pivot.
I closed 518 positions. If you remember, last month I closed 2,221. However, as I mentioned, I increased my position size, which means fewer positions.
320 wins, 61.77% of wins. Even less than the previous month, but I always thought (and still do), that this is a meaningless data point.
Only one of those wins was with DCA, 0 losses with DCA.
I already mentioned, ฿0.065276327 from the starting cycle amount and ฿0.026816897 from my original initial amount.
This month I have been watching my BNB balance to be sure I didn't run out of it because as we saw last month, the impact on fees was pretty bad. Removing the DCAs have cut my losses short too, which helps to recover them.
These averages are going to be a little bit misleading because the first ten days I used the auto-close setting at 15 hours, but later with the individual analysis, we'll see how each one did:
- Closing time: 8 hours (longer one was 100 hours).
- Net profit from wins: 1.73%
- Exit from losses: -2.64%
My total trading volume has been ฿70 ($254,181), this has been one month and ten days, but I also had some days without trading. Probably because I removed the scalping signals, my monthly volume will be reduced, but still, I'll keep an eye on this, because if I reach ฿100 my fees will be cut down.
Analysis per provider
I will show only the two providers that I have left, and are working for me.
Total positions: 23
BTC Profit: 0.01651694
BTC Total Fees: 0.00661150
Total wins: 14
Total Losses: 9
Wins Percentage: 60.87%
Longer closing time from wins: 15 hours
Average closing time from wins: 10 hours
Average net profit percentage from wins: 2.69%
Average exit percentage from losses: -1.77%
Lower fall from wins: -0.83%
Wins that fell less than 0.5%: 4
Wins that fell less than 1%: 7
Wins that fell less than 2%: 13
Wins that fell less than 3%: 13
Wins closed before 5h: 4
Wins closed before 10h: 5
Wins closed before 15h: 9
Wins closed before 20h: 13
Wins closed before 25h: 13
Buy BTC Volume: 4.39272199
Buy USD Volume: 17315.78831968
Sold BTC Volume: 4.41585043
Sold USD Volume: 13524.69946015
Total BTC Volume: 8.80857242
Total USD Volume: 30840.48777983
Here we can see how even when my wins percentage is only 60.87% I'm still profitable.
It's also interesting to see that my average exit with losses is -1.77%, which can be compensated easily with my average net profit average, 2.69%. With those numbers, my wins percentage could be below 50% and still being profitable.
The sad thing is that I played only 23 positions. There is a lot of signals more from this provider, but due to my Minimum Volume and my Buy Order Expiration, most of them are missed. I wasn't able to have four concurrent positions (which is my 100% balance). My monthly volume ฿8, as you can see it's far from the next level (฿100).
Total positions: 45
BTC Profit: 0.08368616
BTC Total Fees: 0.01466583
Total wins: 37
Total Losses: 8
Wins Percentage: 82.22%
Longer closing time from wins: 100 hours
Average closing time from wins: 22 hours
Average net profit percentage from wins: 1.93%
Average exit percentage from losses: -3.97%
Lower fall from wins: -1.33%
Wins that fell less than 0.5%: 12
Wins that fell less than 1%: 18
Wins that fell less than 2%: 26
Wins that fell less than 3%: 30
Wins that fell less than 5%: 37
Wins that fell less than 8%: 37
Wins closed before 5h: 18
Wins closed before 10h: 23
Wins closed before 15h: 25
Wins closed before 20h: 27
Wins closed before 25h: 28
Wins closed before 30h: 29
Wins closed before 40h: 29
Wins closed before 50h: 30
Wins closed before 60h: 30
Wins closed before 70h: 30
Buy BTC Volume: 9.96677212
Buy USD Volume: 39035.96567942
Sold BTC Volume: 10.06512410
Sold USD Volume: 31859.20026904
Total BTC Volume: 20.03189622
Total USD Volume: 70895.16594846
I won't get into many details here because I was using the provider wrong. I didn't realize that the provider also sent sell signals, so I had a small take profit set and a significant stop loss. I have removed them, and I'm waiting to see how the sell signals from the provider work. It still has been very profitable, even more than the Bounce version (mainly because it played more positions).
In the last section, we saw that the average closing time is less than one day, I only had two positions opened at the end of the month, one of them closed during the next night and the other began just 3 hours before the month ended.
How to make passive income
This month I have recovered my previous losses and also take some profits, so it looks I'm on the right track to get unattended passive income. As always I'll keep investigating and analyzing my months, to improving the results.
Some final thoughts. This last month has been a little bit bullish. There wasn't many dumps or pumps from BTC, and I know that almost all providers have done great. Some users were reporting more than 30 positions closed with profit in one single night. I was tempted to come back to the scalping providers, because with this market if instead of 70 positions as I played, I play the almost 2,000 that I played last month, the profits would have been terrific, and probably would have cover any step down that could have been. However, I'm trying to be loyal to my goal, which aims for less profit but in a stable and unattended way.
As always, I'd love to know your thoughts and experiences.